PaCE (Patterns of Conflict Emergence)
Understanding how conflicts emerge.
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Overview
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PaCE (Patterns of Conflict Emergence) is a five-year European Research Council (ERC)–funded project (2022–26), based in the Department of Political Science at Trinity College Dublin. The project examines recurring patterns and sequences leading up to war and political violence, drawing on data from financial markets, news media, diplomatic records, and satellite imagery.
Using advanced machine-learning methods, PaCE aims to improve the forecasting of inter-state and civil wars and to deepen our understanding of how conflicts evolve.
Learn more about PaCE, its team, publications, and events on the project website: